Buy signal for Rural Cellular Corporation (RCCC)

RCCC got a buy signal in the end of last week according to the system. I'm planning to buy it during today's trading session.

Technorati Tags: Buy signal,Nasdaq,Computerized system

Open positions for December 23

Here is the status of my current holdings:

Symbol	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Profit %
ARTG	24/09/2007	3.00	4.37	45.67
IDEV	24/09/2007	6.62	7.09	7.10
INFA	28/09/2007	15.72	17.79	13.17
LWSN	16/10/2007	10.15	10.30	1.48
ANDW	19/10/2007	14.36	15.04	4.74
TYL	19/10/2007	14.08	13.24	-5.97
AMSG	26/10/2007	26.68	27.26	2.17
VGR	05/11/2007	21.55	20.20	-6.26
SDIX	13/11/2007	5.24	5.22	-0.31
CTCH	19/11/2007	2.13	2.06	-3.29
TQNT	26/11/2007	5.90	6.85	16.10
CTGX	26/11/2007	4.93	6.61	13.79
PEGA	03/12/2006	12.46	11.67	-6.34

Technorati Tags: Computerized System,Stock Market,Weekly status,Nasdaq

The system's performance for 2007

As we reach the end of 2007, I've decided to run a simulation for the current year and see how well the system performed had I used it throughout the year.

AS always I start with 100,000 and my position sizing is based on maximum risk of 1% per trade.

The simulation shows a profit of 27% achieved by 7 profitable trades out of 28 in total. The Nasdaq gained around 10.7% in the same period.

Performance:

List of trades:

Technorati Tags: Stock Market,Computerized System,Nasdaq,Technical Analysis

Is Fridays behavior an indicator to Mondays behavior?

As I mentioned in my previous post, I'm currently reading a book titled "How I Trade For A Living". In his book, the author reveal some of his trading methods and even going through some of his past trading positions. According to the author, a bullish Friday has influence on Monday behavior meaning bullish Friday will usually result in a bullish Monday.

I've decided to conduct a small research on the Nasdaq. I went back to January 1985 and counted the number of days where a bullish Friday ended up in a bullish Monday. Out of 627 bullish Fridays, 357 Mondays ended up bullish as well which is ~59%.

Trying to improve the ratio between winning and losing Mondays I decided to check Monday only if Friday gain was above 0.5%. Out of 310 bullish Fridays, 195 Mondays (approximately 69%) ended up bullish as well. The average gain for Monday was 1.02% and the average loss 0.13% as opposed to the previous test were the average gain was 0.84% and the average loss was 0.07%.

Looking back at the results it seems the author has a valid point and one can use this knowledge to increase the probability of a short-term profit by examining Friday's momentum.

Technorati Tags: Knowledge,Stock Market,Nasdaq

The usage of seasonality

Technorati Tags: Seasonality,Bullish,Stock Market

I'm currently reading a book titled "How I Trade For A Living" written by Gary Smith. The book expose you to many of the author's insights in the stock market.

One of the chapters in the book deals with seasonality and how to take advantage of it. The author write about a research conducted by Norman Fosback which shows that the market has bullish bias during the last trading day and first four trading days of each month. Further more, this bias is evident in the two days before each holiday. These days sum up to 28% of all trading days a year. Fosback run a simulation which traded only during these days from 1928 to 1994. The hypothetical account grew from 10,000 to 4.6 million dollar.

In his book, Gary note that even though this research is old he uses this knowledge and it still works for him. What puzzles him (and me) is that patterns like this are usually evaporate in the course of time as people take advantage of them, however the seasonality pattern seems to be still valid. If we examine yesterday's behavior we can see that it is exactly what happened. Lets wait till the end of the month and see if it will work as well.

Open positions for December 23

Technorati Tags: portfolio,system,computerized system

Here is the status of my current holdings:

Symbol	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Profit %
ARTG	24/09/2007	3.00	4.60	53.33
INTV	24/09/2007	9.34	8.38	-10.28
IDEV	24/09/2007	6.62	7.15	8.01
INFA	28/09/2007	15.72	17.80	13.23
LWSN	16/10/2007	10.15	10.24	0.89
ANDW	19/10/2007	14.36	14.93	3.97
TYL	19/10/2007	14.08	13.69	-2.77
AMSG	26/10/2007	26.68	27.51	3.11
VGR	05/11/2007	21.55	20.52	-4.78
SDIX	13/11/2007	5.24	5.30	1.22
CTCH	19/11/2007	2.13	2.12	-0.47
TQNT	26/11/2007	5.90	6.70	13.56
CTGX	26/11/2007	4.93	5.73	16.23
PEGA	03/12/2006	12.46	11.97	-3.93

Open position for December 16

Technorati Tags: portfolio,system,computerized system

Here is the status of my current holdings:

Symbol	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Profit %
ARTG	24/09/2007	3.00	4.60	53.33
INTV	24/09/2007	9.34	8.69	-6.96
IDEV	24/09/2007	6.62	7.34	10.88
INFA	28/09/2007	15.72	17.25	9.73
LWSN	16/10/2007	10.15	9.79	-3.55
ANDW	19/10/2007	14.36	14.82	3.20
TYL	19/10/2007	14.08	14.93	6.04
AMSG	26/10/2007	26.68	25.37	-4.91
VGR	05/11/2007	21.55	22.25	3.25
SDIX	13/11/2007	5.24	5.39	2.94
CTCH	19/11/2007	2.13	2.20	3.29
TQNT	26/11/2007	5.90	6.43	8.98
CTGX	26/11/2007	4.93	5.36	8.72
PEGA	03/12/2006	12.46	11.58	-7.06